Ted Cruz’s Losing Strategy – Delegate Denial & Contested Convention
Ted Cruz Lost New York and His Last Chance to Win Nomination Outright
Senator Ted Cruz lost the battle of New York yesterday after getting annihilated by Donald Trump. Cruz did not gain a single delegate while Trump walked away with 89 after winning over 60% of the popular vote. New York did not value Ted Cruz.
This devastating loss now puts Cruz in a serious predicament. Sen. Cruz has a zero percent chance of winning the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. He has two choices left: quit the race or go into denial. Chances are Cruz will choose the latter.
Remaining GOP Delegate Math
There are 674 delegates left between now and the California Primary on June 7th. Cruz currently has 559 delegates and even if he won 100% of the remaining races, he would only have 1,233. There are 8 winner take all primary elections left and Trump is favored to win most of them. This harsh reality has got to hurt all those “True Conservative” voters out there who were hoodwinked by Cruz into thinking he could win this election.
The Hill reported that Cruz acknowledged Wednesday that a contested convention is his only path to the GOP nomination.
“We are headed to a contested convention at this point. Nobody is getting 1,237,” Cruz said in an interview with Philadelphia radio host Chris Stigall. “Donald is going to talk all the time about other folks not getting 1,237. He’s not getting there either. Neither of us are getting the 1,237.”
Donald Trump only need 392 delegates to win the nomination outright. With a win in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and California – each a winner take all primary state, Trump will only need to find 98 delegates across a dozen primary elections. This is where Kasich and Cruz need to work extra hard to win in the remaining states to deny his nomination. New reports are showing that Trump may only need to win as many as 1,100 delegates to sway unbound delegates into his camp.
Can Kasich and Cruz succeed in preventing Trump from hitting his goal? Donald Trump’s team has recently changed up its leadership, hiring capable people to wrangle delegates and shore up a campaign geared towards a general election against Hillary Clinton. With the remaining delegate ocean rapidly shrinking, it is unlikely either will be able to stop Trump on their own.
Gov. John Kasich remains a spoiler in this race
Kasich continues to spoil the race, denying Cruz delegates in the fight against Trump. Kasich hurt Rubio in Virginia and other states, taking moderate voters away from a potentially winning candidate and continues to unintentionally help Trump stumble his way towards the GOP nomination. Calls for Kasich to drop out have gone unanswered as he continues to stay in the race regardless of his impossible odds of winning the necessary delegates. His strategy is to win enough delegates in the upcoming races to push a contested convention. The trouble with this strategy is that he still has less than Marco Rubio’s 171 delegates.
Kasich has little to lose by staying in the race, keeping his brand in the spotlight a while longer.
What about #NeverTrump?
The #NeverTrump movement has suffered a serious setback. Trump’s huge win in New York and the recent campaign shake up may be enough to carry him into Cleveland as the nominee. Barring a election upset or Trump making good on his idea of shooting someone, momentum and math are on his side. If the #NeverTrump crowd can not stop Trump from winning in Cleveland, there may be enough of them sitting home on election day to allow Hillary Clinton to win the presidency. Perhaps #NeverTrump republicans should change the Twitter hashtag to #MaybeTrump or #OKTrump to prevent another Democrat from occupying the White House.
Fight Night in Cleveland
If Cruz and Kasich are successful in convincing voters that a convention fight is necessary, the GOP event could become a wild west spectacular. Party elders like Mitt Romney may have plans to use their influence to save the Republican party from an impending crisis. Smart candidates like Marco Rubio are expected to play a role as voters realize that Cruz’s lies about him may have brought the party to the brink of destruction. Trump has stirred up an angry electorate, using dangerous rhetoric to gain voters and divide the party. His threats of supporter revolt would be quelled if cooler heads prevail.The party needs a peaceful and wise resolution to combat the socialist threat to America.
Trump needs to learn to be a better leader, one that everyone can support. Otherwise the GOP will fight his nomination efforts to prevent a worse disaster – a third Obama term led by Hillary Clinton.