XRP SEC Case: Expectations On When Case Will End

For more than three years, Ripple Labs has been locked in a battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission—a legal war that many in the crypto world see as a defining case for the entire industry. But now, in 2025, a new question is dominating headlines and crypto forums alike: When will the SEC finally drop the XRP case?

What Happened: The XRP SEC Saga So Far

The saga began in December 2020, when the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple Labs, alleging that its sale of XRP constituted an unregistered securities offering. The timing couldn’t have been worse—XRP was on an upswing, and the lawsuit sent the token’s value into a tailspin. Exchanges began delisting XRP, investors panicked, and Ripple’s operations were thrown into legal uncertainty.

Ripple has maintained from day one that XRP is a currency, not a security, and therefore outside the SEC’s jurisdiction. The case trudged through legal proceedings for years. In a major win for Ripple, Judge Analisa Torres ruled in July 2023 that XRP sales on secondary markets (like exchanges) were not securities. But she also left the door open for the SEC to pursue Ripple on certain institutional sales. That lingering gray area is where the SEC has held its ground—until now.

The Winds Are Shifting: SEC Rumored to Be Weighing an Exit

In recent months, legal insiders and crypto analysts have been buzzing with speculation that the SEC may be preparing to drop what’s left of the XRP case. According to Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett, there have been behind-the-scenes talks about a possible settlement. Former SEC officials like Joseph Hall have gone on record suggesting that the Commission’s position is “increasingly untenable.”

Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, hasn’t confirmed anything, but his public statements suggest confidence that the tide is turning. “The facts and the law have always been on our side,” Alderoty tweeted in February, “and it’s becoming harder for the SEC to keep pretending otherwise.”

The Trump Factor: Could a New Administration Change the Game?

Adding fuel to the speculation is the looming 2024 presidential election, where Donald Trump has emerged once again as the Republican frontrunner. His campaign has hinted at deregulating the crypto sector, and several advisors on his team are pro-crypto.

If Trump wins in November, expect a dramatic reshuffling of SEC leadership. Current SEC Chair Gary Gensler—an outspoken crypto skeptic—would likely be replaced. “With a Trump victory,” said crypto lawyer John Deaton, “the XRP SEC case becomes a prime candidate for quick dismissal or settlement.” The political pressure to end what some now view as regulatory overreach could be immense.

When Will the SEC Drop the XRP Case?

Based on legal timelines and political realities, many analysts are pointing to late 2025 as the moment the SEC might officially end its pursuit. “If the SEC doesn’t drop the case after election results in November, they’ll wait to see the new administration’s stance by early 2025,” said Roslyn Layton, a regulatory policy expert. “By Q3 or Q4 2025, it becomes almost certain that the agency will either settle or drop the remaining claims.”

Of course, the SEC is known for dragging out litigation—but even that has limits. With mounting public pressure, judicial setbacks, and political uncertainty, a full retreat is starting to look more likely than not.

Price Predictions: What Happens to XRP if the SEC Backs Off?

Crypto markets are nothing if not reactive, and XRP’s price is no exception. In early 2023, after the partial win in court, XRP shot up nearly 70% in just a few days. Since then, it has hovered in the $0.50–$0.70 range, suppressed by the legal cloud hanging over its head.

But if the XRP SEC case ends, analysts expect fireworks.

“A full dismissal or favorable settlement would be rocket fuel for XRP,” said Ali Martinez, a crypto market analyst. “We’re looking at a potential 3x to 5x move—possibly even back to all-time highs if broader market sentiment is bullish.”

Others are more cautious. “XRP is still behind competitors in DeFi adoption,” warned crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe, “but a legal win would at least remove the glass ceiling that’s been suppressing its price.”

About XRP

XRP is the native digital currency of the XRP Ledger, a decentralized blockchain designed for fast, low-cost cross-border payments. Created by Ripple Labs, XRP was built to be a bridge currency for financial institutions, aiming to replace the slow, expensive SWIFT system used for international bank transfers.

Unlike proof-of-work coins like Bitcoin, XRP uses a consensus algorithm that allows for high throughput and low energy use. Major institutions like Santander and SBI Holdings have partnered with Ripple to explore real-world payment applications.

The reason the XRP SEC case matters so much goes beyond Ripple. If the SEC can declare a widely-traded cryptocurrency a security, many other tokens could be next. But if XRP prevails, it sets a powerful precedent for the crypto industry—and sends a message that innovation can’t be regulated out of existence.