‘Very possible’ Bitcoin consolidates for 8 months again: 10x Research
Bitcoin Price Action: Analyst Insights on Market Movements
Markus Thielen, the head crypto researcher at 10x Research, suggests that Bitcoin may be on the cusp of repeating its price trajectory seen in 2024, a year marked by significant consolidation after reaching remarkable highs. "It’s very possible," Thielen stated in a recent discussion with Cointelegraph regarding Bitcoin’s potential to mirror its past performance, particularly after achieving a historic peak of $73,679 in March before entering a prolonged period of consolidation that lingered until the presidential election of Donald Trump in November.
Current Chart Analysis: Signs of Market Indecision
Thielen observed that Bitcoin’s chart signals a phase of "market indecision." He initially noted this trend two months ago as Bitcoin hit its latest high of $109,000 on Inauguration Day. His recent report, dated March 15, outlines that Bitcoin’s chart formation resembles a "High and Tight Flag" pattern, which typically implies bullish continuation but here hints at underlying weaknesses.
"This formation comprises two flags rather than one definitive structure, which compromises its strength," Thielen articulated. Consequently, this pattern reflects uncertainty within the market rather than a clear bullish consolidation, indicating a more complex situation than straightforward price increases.
Thielen also commented on the apparent lack of a "buy-the-dip" mentality in the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, reinforcing the notion that investor confidence is wavering.
Little Incentive Amid Price Dips
Amidst ongoing price volatility, Thielen noted that many ETF transactions seem to stem from arbitrage-driven hedge funds. This suggests a reluctance to invest further, especially given persistently low funding rates that present limited incentive for market participants to capitalize on Bitcoin’s price corrections.
Since March, when Bitcoin fell beneath $90,000, there’s been a reported outflow of approximately $1.66 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, according to data provided by Farside.
As Bitcoin trades at $84,290, reflecting a 23% decline from its January peak of $109,000, market sentiment remains lukewarm. Additionally, Bitcoin has dropped 12.86% over the past month, as tracked by CoinMarketCap.
Thielen has expressed uncertainty regarding a near-term uptrend for Bitcoin. He advises that it may be prudent to close short positions, though he emphasizes the absence of strong indicators pointing towards a robust price recovery.
Bullish Indicators or Retesting Levels
Market analysts have viewed Bitcoin’s recent decline with caution. After falling below $80,000—a level last seen in November—predictions for further downturns have emerged. BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom Chief Investment Officer, Arthur Hayes, recently indicated expectations for a potential retest of the $78,000 mark, cautioning that failure to maintain this level could lead to further pressures near $75,000.
In contrast, Iliya Kalchev of digital asset investment platform Nexo expressed that the low $70,000 levels might provide a platform for a more sustainable recovery for Bitcoin, marking a critical point as market participants navigate through the complexities of this evolving landscape.
With market dynamics shifting and a tapestry of uncertainty present, Bitcoin’s price action continues to be a focal point for both analysts and investors alike.
