This Key Resistance Could Prevent BTC’s Surge to $90K

Bitcoin has recently shown notable price action, experiencing a vigorous rebound from the pivotal support level of $78K. Currently, it finds itself testing a crucial resistance point at $85K. Should Bitcoin manage to reclaim this level, traders anticipate that the next target may land within the $90K region.

### Technical Analysis

#### The Daily Chart

Bitcoin’s price dynamics indicate a rebound from the lower boundary of an ascending wedge, which corresponds with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level positioned at $78K. This convergence of support mechanisms boosts the likelihood of buyers firmly defending this zone in the mid-term.

As Bitcoin approaches the significant resistance zone at $85K—a key area coinciding with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-day moving average—the market sentiment becomes crucial. While a potential breakout above this threshold could ignite a surge toward the $90K mark, the notable presence of sellers suggests that a consolidation phase is more probable in the short term.

#### The 4-Hour Chart

On a more granular level, Bitcoin’s recent upward trajectory has pushed it near the upper boundary of a descending wedge at the $85K mark. This pattern frequently indicates a potential bullish market rebound if the price successfully breaches the upper trendline. In such a scenario, a rally toward the $90K level is expected.

However, current market conditions, marked by a relative lack of strong buying demand, suggest that further consolidation within the wedge is a likely immediate outcome.

### On-chain Analysis

The Realized Cap UTXO Age Bands (%) metric serves as an insightful tool for understanding Bitcoin’s distribution based on how long coins have been held. Recent data reveals a rapid increase in the percentage of coins held for 3 to 6 months, reflecting accumulation patterns reminiscent of the lengthy correction experienced in the summer of 2024.

This trend underscores a sentiment among investors to hold onto their Bitcoin, resisting the urge to sell amid market corrections. Historically, this resilience among holders has proven instrumental in forming market bottoms and catalyzing new upward trends. As long-term holders continue to amass their holdings, the circulating supply of Bitcoin diminishes, enhancing its scarcity. When demand eventually resurges, this reduced supply can lead to significant price surges, propelling Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

Given the current market activity, this data indicates that Bitcoin’s present scenario illustrates a healthy correction rather than the onset of a protracted bear market. Investors continue to perceive Bitcoin as a valuable long-term investment, bolstering expectations for an eventual bullish continuation.

Bitcoin is currently at a crucial juncture. As traders and investors closely monitor these key thresholds, the coming days and weeks may hold significant implications for the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory.