The current BTC ‘bear market’ will only last 90 days — Analyst
The current Bitcoin (BTC) market is experiencing a bear phase, characterized by a drop exceeding 20% from its all-time highs. Timothy Peterson, a prominent market analyst and author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, suggests that the severity of this downturn is relatively mild compared to historical bear markets, projecting that this phase may last for no longer than 90 days.
Peterson’s analysis draws comparisons to ten previous bear markets, noting that only four endured longer declines—specifically, the downturns of 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024. As such, he indicates that BTC is unlikely to fall significantly below the $50,000 mark due to ongoing adoption trends. He elaborated that a short-term price decline within the next month could potentially precede a rally of 20-40% after April 15. He expressed confidence that this recovery might attract ‘weak hands’ back to the market, further driving Bitcoin’s price upwards.
Adding to the tension in the crypto market, external factors such as trade tensions from U.S. tariffs have introduced volatility. A recent spike in uncertainties surrounding trade policies has resulted in a sharp downturn, paralleling declines in other risk assets. Historical data demonstrates this correlation with BTC’s price movements reacting to macroeconomic factors.
Investors are reportedly shifting their focus away from risk-on assets amidst the noise of ongoing trade disputes. The Glassnode Hot Supply metric, which tracks Bitcoin held for a week or less, has plummeted from 5.9% during the bull run in November 2024 to a mere 2.3% by March 20. This decline suggests that the appetite for speculative investments is waning, as investors become more cautious due to macroeconomic concerns.
Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst from Nansen, predicts that this pressure on crypto markets could remain until April 2025, potentially aligning with international negotiations that may alleviate trade tariff pressures. Moreover, research from CryptoQuant indicates that most retail investors are already invested in BTC, diminishing hopes for a significant influx of new retail capital to boost prices in the short term.
In light of these developments, Bitcoin’s status as a ‘safe haven’ asset is being challenged. The recent downward spiral in price shares the same narrative seen in traditional risk assets, compelling analysts to reconsider BTC’s role amid turbulent economic conditions.
For further insights on the current state of Bitcoin and potential market trends, visit Cointelegraph’s market analysis, and stay updated on the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency investments.
This article does not provide investment advice. As with any investment and trading decision, it’s crucial to conduct thorough research and consider the inherent risks involved.
