Lutnick Plays Down Recession Fears at Bitcoin Lingers in 80K Range
Treasury Secretary Howard Lutnick has made a bold assertion that the U.S. economy remains strong despite rising concerns from Wall Street about a forthcoming recession. During an appearance on the Sunday edition of Meet the Press, Lutnick expressed unwavering confidence, stating, “Absolutely not,” when asked if Americans should brace for an economic downturn. “There’s going to be no recession in America,” he insisted, drawing a parallel to the recent political landscape by claiming, “It’s like the same people who thought Donald Trump wasn’t a winner a year ago. Donald Trump is a winner. He’s going to win for the American people.”
A recession, typically characterized by two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, can arise from a combination of internal and external factors. This assertion of resilience stands in stark contrast to President Trump’s earlier comments, where he did not dismiss the possibility of a recession, describing it merely as a phase of transition, as detailed in a recent BBC article.
Lutnick further elaborated that the administration’s tariff strategy is designed to compel other nations to reduce their trade barriers, which in turn could stimulate American economic growth and attract an estimated $1.3 trillion in new investments. “We’re going to unleash America out to the world,” he said, responding to cautionary notes from big banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs concerning the possibility of a tariff-induced recession. Lutnick forecasted a remarkable growth surge over the next two years, attributing this confidence to the potential for transformative economic policies.
While acknowledging that tariffs may increase the cost of foreign goods, he framed these measures within a larger framework aimed at reducing the national deficit and lowering borrowing costs. “When you balance the budget… you drive interest rates down 150 basis points. Mortgages come smashing down. The cost of your home will come smashing down,” Lutnick emphasized.
However, this optimism does not seem shared by the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) dropped by 7% over the weekend, descending to $80,000 and approaching its lowest point of the year at $78,000. Other cryptocurrencies, including Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP), also experienced downward trends, with meme coins like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) plummeting nearly 12%.
On Polymarket, a platform for betting on various outcomes, a growing number of bettors are bracing for an economic slowdown, with the odds of a U.S. recession occurring in 2025 rising to 41%, a substantial 16% increase in recent weeks. Such sentiment is echoed by the latest jobs report, which indicated that 151,000 jobs were added in February, a figure roughly meeting expectations, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, further compounded by the revision of January’s job gains to lower figures.
The macroeconomic landscape continues to exhibit mixed signals, as the labor market’s resilience has temporarily kept recession fears at bay. Nevertheless, signs of slowing economic growth are palpable. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is currently predicting a negative growth rate of 2.8% for the first quarter of 2025. In contrast, another Polymarket contract indicates merely a 3% chance of a recession being formally declared before May, as the first quarter approaches its conclusion on March 31.
