Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle Over? This Critical Metric Says It Might Be

Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent performance has prompted speculation regarding the potential conclusion of its bullish phase, raising concerns among investors about the possibility of entering a bear market. The bearish trend observed over the past two months has bottomed out investor sentiments as market analysts employ various forecasting techniques to gauge Bitcoin’s imminent price trajectory. However, it’s the on-chain data metrics that provide a more insightful lens into the market’s circumstances.

A weekly report by the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant has brought attention to the Bitcoin Bull Score Model, an analytical tool designed to discern whether the current price drawdown signifies a short-term correction or the commencement of a more extended slump. The findings are not encouraging for Bitcoin supporters, as current metrics do not lend themselves to a bullish interpretation.

### The Bull Score Model

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Model evaluates the investment environment of Bitcoin through a combination of nine on-chain indicators alongside a market metric. This model categorizes each metric as either bullish (1) or bearish (0), based on established criteria assessing network activity, market liquidity, demand, and investor sentiment.

Key metrics included in the model are the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, the Bitcoin Profit and Loss Index, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, and the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP). Additionally, it considers metrics such as the CryptoQuant Network Activity Index, Stablecoin Liquidity, Bitcoin Demand Growth, Trader On-chain Profit Margin, Trader Realized Price, and Technical Signals.

At present, only two metrics—Stablecoin Liquidity and Technical Signals—are indicating bullish trends, showcasing a predominantly bearish environment overall. This lack of supportive fundamentals raises concerns about the sustainability of any potential recovery or price rally, as highlighted by CryptoQuant.

> “We can observe that the metrics have switched between bullish and bearish phases multiple times, with extended periods of green indicating strong bullish cycles and prolonged stretches of red corresponding to market conditions,” the report notes, emphasizing that metrics have turned red significantly since mid-February 2025.

### Signs of Bear Market

Some indicators, including the Network Activity Index, have been trending bearish since December 2024, suggesting a notable decline in network activity. This trend indicates that the current market conditions are the least optimistic observed since January 2023.

The Bull Score Model operates by measuring the percentage of bullish indicators within a range of 0 to 100. Historically, a Bull Score above 60 often correlates with flourishing market conditions, whereas a score below 40 has been associated with prolonged downturns typically seen in bear markets. Currently, Bitcoin’s Bull Score is positioned at a mere 20, marking the lowest level since January 2023, signifying a frail investment landscape with limited potential for a robust rally in the foreseeable future.

In light of these developments, it’s evident that the ongoing fluctuations and bearish indicators warrant a cautious approach for Bitcoin investors, as the market grapples with uncertainty and various intrinsic challenges hindering positive price movements. The landscape remains fraught with complexities, compelling stakeholders to remain vigilant as they navigate this volatile phase.