‘Bitcoin bull cycle is over,’ CryptoQuant CEO warns, citing onchain metrics
CryptoQuant’s founder and CEO, Ki Young Ju, has recently revised his outlook on Bitcoin, signaling a potential end to the ongoing bull market. In a post on March 17, Ju stated, "Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action." This declaration sharply contrasts his earlier prediction from March 4, where he indicated that the bull cycle was “still intact” albeit slow.
Ju elaborated on his current bearish stance, noting that all Bitcoin on-chain metrics suggest a bear market is underway. As liquidity diminishes, he mentioned that "new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices." This shift in sentiment follows reports indicating Bitcoin funding rates—an essential metric reflecting the cost of holding positions in crypto futures—hover near 0%. This situation reflects a growing indecisiveness among traders regarding market direction.
Compounding the bearish narrative, Ju emphasized the neutral stance of various key indicators that characterize the market’s condition. Earlier in the month, he pointed to a strong fundamental backdrop, emphasizing the influx of new mining rigs coming online. Yet, with recent market movements, his comments have shifted noticeably, indicating increased caution among market players.
In contrast to Ju’s pessimistic view, some analysts maintain a more optimistic outlook. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal reassured investors, stating, "there is no reason to panic." While acknowledging that some traders are spooked by geopolitical events like tariffs from US President Donald Trump, he highlighted that overall economic indicators are trending positively. "Money will move to on-risk assets when the market is ready to take on risk," he added.
As of now, Bitcoin is valued at approximately $83,030, marking a decline of about 14.79% over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap. Some analysts, however, suggest that with the global M2 money supply reaching new highs, conditions may be ripe for a Bitcoin recovery. “I’m saying Global Money Supply just made another new ATH. We are about to see Bitcoin rally again,” tweeted crypto analyst Seth.
Looking ahead, CoinRoutes CEO Dave Weisberger noted that if historical trends hold, Bitcoin could achieve all-time highs by late April. He stated, “Expect Bitcoin to hit a new ATH within a month if its BETA correlation to money supply holds.”
Despite the current bearish sentiments, historical analysis presents a contrasting scenario. Former Phunware CEO Alan Knitowski remarked that Bitcoin’s price is currently 67% below what would be deemed the lower bound of its historical range, estimating this figure to be around $250,000 based on historical cycles.
In an assertion that echoes a plausible bullish turn, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten suggested there is over a 50% probability that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs by the end of June this year. The previous record high of $109,000 was established on January 20, shortly before Trump’s inauguration.
This situation represents a complex narrative within the cryptocurrency market, demonstrating the stark divergence in analyst sentiment as Bitcoin navigates through a tumultuous landscape. The ongoing developments in global markets, monetary policy, and investor sentiment will undoubtedly continue to shape Bitcoin’s trajectory moving forward.
