Bitcoin 77% Correction To $25,000, Will History Repeat Itself
Based on historical records, after every Bitcoin (BTC) bull run, a bear market hits, and this cycle may be no different. Analysts forecast that the upcoming bear market may see the price of Bitcoin dropping as low as $25,000. This decline would represent a whopping 77% crash, pushing BTC to a possible market bottom.
Analyst Bitcoin Price Correction To $25,000
Bitcoin has been put in the spotlight again, as its recent price surge has sparked new projections by market analysts. One notable forecast by crypto expert Tony Severino suggests that if history repeats, Bitcoin could see a drawdown between 77% and 84% from its peak.
This implies that BTC may see its price skyrocket to its highest point during this bull cycle. However, after this historic price rally, the cryptocurrency is expected to correct downwards toward the $25,000 to $17,000 range in the next bear market.
Looking at Severino’s price chart, Bitcoin has been mirroring a repeating cycle of euphoric bull runs followed by severe bear market crashes. The chart highlights three major historical corrections that occurred during the last three bull cycles.
In the 2013 to 2015 bear market, BTC hit a price peak and then plunged 86.64% to a bottom, marking the highest crash to date. Similarly, during the 2017 to 2018 bear market, Bitcoin fell 84.04% from its all-time high.
Again, from 2021 to 2022, the pioneer cryptocurrency declined 77.57%. This bear market pattern shows that BTC often experiences significant price drawdowns after reaching a final ATH, with each subsequent correction being slightly less severe than the last.
Interestingly, the severity of Bitcoin’s decline in every bear market has decreased by 4% each cycle. Severino has shared his thesis on this analysis, highlighting that instead of a 77% to 84% correction, the cryptocurrency could see a decline of 61.8% to 74% — a less drastic but still significant drop.
Another unique aspect of Severino’s analysis is the influence of the Bitcoin halving event. The year after every halving event, BTC has historically hit an all-time high. Considering that the cryptocurrency hit an ATH before its halving event in 2024 and then another after the US Presidential elections in January 2025, the current market’s trajectory and the analyst’s forecast remain uncertain.
BTC Set For $160,000 ATH Before Crash To $25,000
While Severino shares his bear market prediction of the Bitcoin price to $25,000, the analyst also revealed his projected ATH target for BTC. He forecasts that BTC could reach a market peak target of $160,000 this bull cycle. This surge would mark a 74.1% increase in the Bitcoin price.
As of writing, the pioneer cryptocurrency is trading at $91,880 after recovering slightly from bearish trends and rallying 7.05% in one day, according to CoinMarketCap.
Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
Historically, Bitcoin’s price movements often follow patterns that resemble previous cycles. As the market evolves, many investors and analysts wonder whether current trends signify a repeating cycle. The cryptocurrency’s notorious volatility and the nature of supply and demand play significant roles in this dynamic.
The historical price developments of Bitcoin suggest that it’s prone to boom-and-bust cycles, characterized by periods of rapid price increases followed by sharp declines. Examining past data reveals that these cycles have typically lasted from a few months to several years, leading to patterns that can potentially inform future trends.
Looking back at Bitcoin’s price history, the rise and subsequent crash of late 2017 serves as a stark reminder of the cyclical nature of crypto markets. During that time, Bitcoin reached its previous all-time high near $20,000 before plunging to around $3,000 a year later. This dramatic volatility has been a hallmark of Bitcoin, reflecting investor sentiment, regulatory changes, and macroeconomic influences.
Indicators such as the market’s behavior around historical supply halving events often highlight potential future price movements. Each halving event—where the rewards for mining Bitcoin are cut in half—has previously preceded significant bullish momentum, prompting discussions about supply constriction contributing to price rallies. The last halving in May 2020, for example, led to substantial accumulation and dramatic price increases over the subsequent months.
Investor psychology also plays a critical role in shaping Bitcoin’s price trajectory. As newcomers enter the market, driven by stories of previous success, the increased demand tends to inflate prices. However, as these speculative bubbles grow, they can also burst, driven by profit-taking, negative news cycles, and broader market corrections. This perpetual cycle of fear and greed impacts investor behavior and can lead to higher volatility.
Moreover, the increasing involvement of institutional investors has changed the landscape of Bitcoin investment. Traditional asset managers and large corporations are beginning to allocate portions of their portfolios to cryptocurrencies, providing a level of legitimacy and potential stability to the market. While this institutional interest is often seen as a sign of maturity for Bitcoin, it also introduces new dynamics that could either mitigate or exacerbate cyclical tendencies.
As Bitcoin approaches the end of its current cycle, many market participants are debating whether the historical trends will manifest again or if the market has fundamentally evolved. The ongoing discussions surrounding Bitcoin’s adoption as a mainstream asset and its integration into financial systems raise questions about its future price behavior.
The interplay between macroeconomic conditions, such as inflation and changes in monetary policy, will also disproportionally affect Bitcoin’s role as a hedge or a speculative asset. As economic challenges arise globally, Bitcoin’s narrative as “digital gold” could become increasingly significant, further influencing supply and demand dynamics.
In light of these factors, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will continue this historical pattern of cycles or if new influences will shape a different narrative. Active market participants are encouraged to remain vigilant and adaptable, as the cryptocurrency landscape remains unpredictable.
The past may provide hints, but the future of Bitcoin could be shaped by factors that diverge from historical precedence. The cyclical nature of financial markets, combined with the unique attributes of cryptocurrencies, means that while history can inform expectations, it cannot dictate outcomes. Investors must consider the evolving nature of Bitcoin and its market as a complex interplay of various influences unfolds.
